Human Capital and the Supply of Religion*

We study the role of labor inputs in the production of religion using comprehensive data on every Oklahoma Methodist congregation during 1961-2003. Pastors have large effects on church growth: replacing a 25th percentile pastor with a 75th percentile one increases annual attendance growth by three percent, similar to the effect of a ten percent increase in the surrounding county’s population. A pastor’s performance in his first church – which is largely the result of random assignment – is strongly predictive of his performance in future congregations, suggesting a causal effect of pastors on church growth. Moreover, the movement of pastors within the Oklahoma ministry is consistent with efficient use of labor resources: low-performing pastors are much more likely to be rotated, consistent with a model of pastor-church matching. Additionally, high-performing pastors are moved to larger congregations, and lowperforming pastors are more likely to exit the sample. *We have benefited from discussions with Dan Hamermesh, Jonah Rockoff, and seminar participants at Columbia University, University of California at San Diego, University of Maryland, University of Southern California, and University of Texas at Austin. All errors are our own. ‡ Contact: Joseph Engelberg, 9500 Gilman Drive, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037.Raymond Fisman, Uris 622, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025. Jay Hartzell, 1 University Station B6600, Austin, TX 78712. Christopher Parsons, 9500 Gilman Drive, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037.